Ukraine Situation – Viewed from different Angles : The DEEP STATE Analysis

Photo by Andy Beecroft / wikimedia commons *

Photo by Andy Beecroft / wikimedia commons *

The term DEEP STATE can be defined as : ”a system composed of high-level elements within the intelligence services, military, security, judiciary and organized crime. The Deep State is a hybrid association of elements of government and parts of top-level finance and industry that is effectively able to govern the nation without reference to the consent of the governed as expressed through the formal political process.”Mike Lofgren (1) emphasis added

”US government spent hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of dollars in Ukraine to foster organized opposition (…) Washington’s agenda has little to do with democracy and freedom, and a lot to do with destabilizing Putin’s Russia.” – William F. Engdahl (2)

Syria and Ukraine:It has to do with a major pipelines that supply western Europe of its natural gas – and to some extent crude oil, but these are mainly what I call the gas pipeline wars. (…) the west does not want to see US-UK and western Europe, they do not want to see Russia dominate Europe with energy supply.”Jim Willie (3)

***

Ukraine: A Deep State Analysis

By Charles Hugh Smith
charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca
February 26, 2014

Some preliminary thoughts on a complex situation.

It doesn’t take any special insight into the situation in Ukraine to conclude that no one narrative illuminates all the dynamics. Various contesting Grand Narratives have emerged in the media–neofascist coup, rampant corruption, east versus west, to name a few–but these only describe a few of the regional fault lines and complexities.

At my request, correspondent A.C. offered a preliminary Deep State analysis of the situation. A.C.’s perspective is informed by decades of experience in Eastern Europe, Russia and the Baltic region.

I recently discussed the Deep State in The Dollar and the Deep State, and offered this definition by Mike Lofgren:

The term “Deep State” was coined in Turkey and is said to be a system composed of high-level elements within the intelligence services, military, security, judiciary and organized crime.

The Deep State is a hybrid association of elements of government and parts of top-level finance and industry that is effectively able to govern the nation without reference to the consent of the governed as expressed through the formal political process.


I describe the U.S. Deep State as the National Security State which enables the a vast Imperial structure that incorporates hard and soft power–military, diplomatic, intelligence, finance, commercial, energy, media, higher education–in a system of global domination and influence.

One key feature of the Deep State everywhere is that it makes decisions behind closed doors and the surface government simply ratifies and implements the decisions. I have covered various aspects of geopolitics and the Deep State for years, for example:

The Great Game: Geopolitics and Oil (October 19, 2010)

The Banality of Evil and Imperial Over-Reach (December 14, 2010)

Speaking of Iraq–let’s start with the obvious Deep State agenda in Ukraine: energy. Nations with a strategic “vital interest” in the region’s energy mix include Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Germany (and the rest of the European Union, which currently depends on natural gas piped through Ukraine from Russia), Romania and (of course) the United States, which maintains a strategic interest in every square meter of the planet (including the seas and ice caps).

It’s not much of a stretch to say that Russia’s fiscal health and geopolitical influence are based on hydrocarbons–specifically gas and oil delivered to other nations for cash and/or political favors.

The maturation of fracking technologies have led to the exploration of western Ukraine, Poland and Romania by super-major oil companies such as Chevron: Where We Operate – Chevron

Chevron holds four shale concessions in Poland—Frampol, Grabowiec, Krasnik and Zwierzyniec—which total approximately one million acres. In the Grabowiec concession, drilling of the first well was completed in March 2012, followed by a diagnostic fracture integrity test in December 2012. A first well also was drilled in the Frampol concession in 2012. In the Zwierzyniec concession, drilling began in December 2012. Continued exploration drilling is planned for 2013. 

Chevron holds more than 2 million acres in Romania, including a 1.6-million-acre concession in the Barlad Shale. We plan to drill an exploration well in 2013. We hold three additional concession agreements covering 670,000 acres in southeast Romania. Acquisition of 2-D seismic data across these concessions is expected to begin in 2013. 

Chevron successfully bid for the right to exclusively negotiate with the government of Ukraine for the Oleska Block. The company is expected to operate and hold a 50 percent interest in the 1.6 million-acre concession.

Ukraine holds promise for shale gas despite uncertainty

The development of gas fields in these regions poses a direct competitive threat to the near-monopoly currently held by the Russian national oil company, Gazprom. This sets up a scramble for energy, where western Ukraine, Poland, Romania and the EU have powerful financial incentives to develop energy sources outside of Russian control, while Russia has an incentive to secure energy resources and assets in Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

Here is A.C.’s outline of some of the key dynamics:

This gas pipeline map graphically illustrates Gazprom’s real problem. A major competing gas field is appearing literally underneath a major existing east-west gas pipeline running into central Europe. Drill wells and immediately begin selling to Germany and other existing Gazprom customers. And also undercut Gazprom’s pricing by a touch. 

The extent to which US-based multinational oil and gas firms are directly displacing Russian enterprises in supplying the EU is remarkable. Chevron and Exxon are very prominent in the emerging offshore and shale plays. 

I think the imminent threat of Ukrainian shale gas development is a factor in forcing Putin’s hand over the EU trade deal. Putin’s regional Great Power ambitions are backed entirely by strong arm hydrocarbon diplomacy. Putin’s domestic political position equally rests on stable and elevated hydrocarbon prices to fund the state budget. 

He has no revolutionary ideology with mass appeal in religion, politics or economics. Nor does he possess a large internationally recognized sphere of dominance like Stalin obtained at Yalta in 1945. 

Nor does he have a large land army with which to intimidate and subdue neighboring states. He’s only managed to convert a portion of the shrunken Army to “kontraktniki” (well-paid professional volunteers). These guys are the ones suppressing the Muslim insurgents in the Caucasus. If Putin attempted to openly intervene in the Ukraine with the available and virtually untrained conscript military forces it would produce a political explosion in Russia’s own internal politics. This is addition to the surge of Ukrainian nationalist opposition that would ensue. 

Putin’s risk arises not just from the example being set for Russian domestic opponents. If Putin is seen to be responsible for alienating and finally “losing” the Ukraine he’ll find himself in trouble with the Russian Deep State. 

What’s Happening in Kiev Right Now Is Vladimir Putin’s Worst Nightmare (New Republic) 

Will Ukraine Break Apart (New Yorker) 

As this piece notes, modern Ukraine in its present form is an artifact of the 1945 Yalta Conference and the post World War II order. Just like Yugoslavia. Unfortunately for all concerned, this latent instability is now compounded by a happenstance of geology and the recent maturation of the technology for exploiting shale gas reserves. Adjoining neighbors like Poland now have motives that were missing when the Ukraine was a poor and primarily agrarian land. 

The gas pipeline map shows the major incentives and rational objectives of a partition strategy from Putin’s perspective. He can’t stop development in Polish Lublin or near Lviv. He at least needs to keep control of infrastructure in the eastern Ukraine. Offshore Black Sea oil and gas tract concessions are also at stake.

This suggests that the interests of all parties align in supporting a de facto partition rather than a civil war in Ukraine in which neither side could establish stable, long-term control of the other.

I asked A.C. for his view of the U.S. Deep State’s goals in the region.

The short two-part answer is: 

1. Frustrate Moscow’s ambitions to dominate Eurasia. The operative strategic analyses employed are MacKinder’s World-Island Theory as subsequently and heavily modified by modern hydro-carbon fuel economics: The Geographical Pivot of History

2. Continue to improve the EU’s Central European position with respect to its hydrocarbon fuel supplies. The Neocons were already deeply worried about the growth of NATO dependence on Gazprom and the eastern pipelines in the mid-1980s. This has been on their radar for decades. 

The overall objective is to destroy Putin’s capacity to set marginal natural gas prices in Europe. If pipelines under the Baltic and Black Seas are feasible so are pipelines under the Mediterranean Sea from North Africa to France, and from the eastern Mediterranean and Aegean to Greece and southeastern Europe. Add some LPG terminals and European shale gas operations and this is achieved. 

There may be a third goal in trying to set an example for domestic Russian opponents, which exist in great numbers. I think it’s more likely the Russian Federation’s Deep State will find another leader first.

Thank you, A.C., for your perspective on this complex, fast-evolving situation.Sometimes strategic goals can be met not by establishing overt control (i.e. becoming a target) but by indirectly thwarting the goals of competing Deep States. (1)

***

Gas Pipelines Wars

Extracted from :
Kerry Lutz’s–Financial Survival Network
– Exclusive Interview with Jim Willie Part 1 26.Feb.14 –
(Rough and partial transcript by CNLib)

Jim Willie, on Syria and Ukraine:

It has to do with a major pipelines that supply western Europe of its natural gas – and to some extent crude oil, but these are mainly what I call the gas pipeline wars. Not in the news in the United States, was a very big factor regarding Syria, that the Iran gas pipeline was to have a final port somewhere – I don’t know the exact location but somewhere – in Syria, at the Mediterranean edge. Which was going to be servicing western Europe. And the US and its allies, the British, the Israelis, all these folks, they didn’t want that. So they tried to create a war.”

”There is another hidden element to it also; they didn’t only want to disrupt the gas pipeline from arriving to the Mediterranean, they wanted to disrupt some of the legal rights for the offshore oil and gas gigantic find in the Mediterranean that Lebanon and Syria both have rights for. So the common theme in Syria and Ukraine is: pipelines – energy pipelines, for supply of western Europe”

”This is really the same kind of formula that we have been seeing now for 30 years coming out of the US government and its vast array of security agencies, and their mercenaries, and whatever, to foment instability with popular reform demands, at the grass root level, causing instability, causing the rioting, causes the change of government, cause all kind of mayhem. And, you know, I ask the same question: the US seems to have a strategy to destabilize and ruin the world so they could rule it. And it’s insane

(…) and right now they are focused in Ukraine. It’s just insane what’s going on but the big issue, I believe, has to do with energy and it has implications with the petrodollar and the stability of the dollar. And the big issue is the Gazprom monopoly, with its vast array of pipelines. And Gazprom is the major Russian conglomerate (…) But the west does not want to see US-UK and western Europe, they do not want to see Russia dominate Europe with energy supply. So wherever it’s possible, like say Cyprus, cause some problems, disrupt the banks – well you know the hidden issue in Cyprus was one of the biggest bank there was Gazprom Bank (…) a couple of big Russian banks where involved in securing gold and making payments in Cyprus. So the Us the UK and Europe want to disrupt Gazprom. Because what’s coming, is what I call (…) a natural gas co-op. And it involves a rather strange group of bedfellows : Turkmenistan, Qatar, Israel, Russia, Iran – that’s what’s going to eclipse and push aside OPEC.”

”So instead of having Saudi Arabia running OPEC, as the petrodollar official station, you are going to see Gazprom and Iran working together with the Nat-Gas co-op, that really knocks dead the dollar. So that’s what is going on with Syria and Ukraine. And I don’t want to go in all of the details of Ukraine, but there is a lot going on there. It’s a divided nation (…) Russia is just not gonna let this go! So, we are likely going to see a lot of events happening real soon now in cleaning things up because the Olympics are over.” (…)

”When I look at Venezuela, I see what’s coming to the United States . Because when the dollar loses it’s standing, and the reserve currency status, when the King Dollar is pushed off his throne by whatever means (…) we are going to see the US suffer tremendous chaos economically (…) What’s happening now in Venezuela is your preview of the United States . This is a very important point here. We are now going to get out of this. The US is going through a very ugly adjustment process.” (2)

Listen to the complete interview with Jim Willie HERE.

***

A lot to do with destabilizing Russia

Extracted from:

CorbettReport – Interview 830 –
William Engdahl Exposes the Western Agenda in Ukraine

February 27th, 2014
(Rough and partial transcript of the interview by CNLib)

In this wide-ranging interview, author and geopolitical analyst William Engdahl of WilliamEngdahl.com breaks down the history and context of the geopolitical machinations in Ukraine.

William Engdahl, on the situation in Ukraine: 

”So it became very clear that it was a direct US State department Coup d’État instrumentalizing the person who they were going to bring in to oust a democratically elected, in an election which was a western election monitors claimed was relatively fraud free. So, Yanukovich, because people were feed up with the previous government of Yushchenko – this was the pro-NATO government – they voted Yanukovich because they felt maybe they would get a little bit better situation out of him. So this was an elected government.”

”The US comes in and says: ” we don’t like what you do, so we are going to change you by essentially our colour revolution part II.” And that’s what we see. (…) This is the US dictating what the shape of the new government down the person is going to be, and this is interference in a Sovereign Nation, even if Washington doesn’t like the policy”

”Can you imagine if Putin came in and started dictating to Vice President Biden or the Russian ambassador in Washington who they wanted to come in and be vice- president and secretary of defense, and so forth in the United States government, after they financed a so called ” colour revolution” on the streets of the United States with students and unemployed and so forth, marching against Washington, that would have become public. And that wouldn’t go down very well the US population, I don’t think…”

”So this is illegal what the US has done; it’s illegal what (…) John McCain has done going to Kiev with the International Republican Institute – he is the chairman of it – which is a regime change NGO created on the plan from CIA Bill Casey during the Reagan Era.”

”So these are not nice people, Victoria Nuland herself is a real peace of work! By all her public credential, she started out as an aid to Dick Cheney (…) to become US ambassador to NATO – at the time NATO was expanding into the Warsaw pact countries – the former communist countries of the Soviet Era. Victoria is married to one of the leading neo-conservative in Washington, and she, herself, is a neo-con. So this is a distinct network, they are tied to the US military industry, very intimately, and various foundation board and so forth. And so this is not an innocent support of destroying a democratically elected regime.”

(…) ”It has the potential of getting very nasty; I think that a large part of the eastern Ukraine wants secession from the western Ukraine. Western is not interesting for the European Union because it has virtually no industry, it has a lot of trees, a lot of forests, it has this history of being part of Poland, part of Austro-Hungary (…) Europe and the west wants to take the Eastern part, which is where the Russian influence is strongest, where Yanukovich origins are and where is bases are, so I think it’s not to be ruled out that there is a civil war in Ukraine in the next months and that there is a split into two countries – one going toward Russia and the Eurasian Union (…)”

”Since the collapse of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, the Pentagon, the State department, the US through that NATO have never deviated from the idea of destroying entirely the military capability of what was left of the Soviet Union, in terms of Russia.”

”People who know the book The Gran Chessboard by, Zbigniew Brzezinski, from 1997, Brzezinski then made clear that the sole potential challenger in the world for a United States sole superpower hegemony was the combined nations of Eurasia, that includes Russia and China (…) British geopolitics since 1904 has been to prevent that coming together of Eurasia and Brzezinski says openly in 1997- seven years after the collapse of the Soviet Union: ”That remains America’s central foreign policy, (geopolicy) today to prevent that.” (3)

Listen HERE to the complete CorbettReport interview with William Engdahl, a world renowned expert in geopolitics.

Sources:

(1) http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2014/02/ukraine-deep-state-analysis.html
(2) http://kerrylutz.libsyn.com/jim-willie-part-1-2-26-2014
(3) http://corbettreport.com/interview-830-william-engdahl-exposes-the-western-agenda-in-ukraine/

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